Wasatch 2040 Plan

The Wasatch 2040 Plan is ambitious in wanting to steer a substantial share of regional growth to transit oriented developments, transit corridors, and transit-served nodes. Implementation of these objectives depends on better understanding of demand and supply conditions, arts and public amenities that influence growth patterns, development of the analytic platform to facilitate community sustainability decision-making from the parcel level up to the region.

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Is Anyone Listening as Climate Change Speeds Up?

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Another Bonanza

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Urban Design vs. Urban Planning: a Distinction With a Difference

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Traffic Generated by MXD: New Prediction Methods Ahead

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Make Way for a New Theory

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Translational Research in Action

Reid Ewing

HUD Sustainable Communities Grant for Salt Lake County

The competitively-awarded grant is among 45 to be awarded under a new program that received applications from more than 1,000 communities across the country. The awards were made under HUD’s new Sustainable Communities Regional Planning Grant program, funded for the first time this year, that supports the development and implementation of regional plans that integrate affordable housing with neighboring retail and business development.

City and Metropolitan Planning Department and the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR)

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Translational Research: The Next New Thing

Reid Ewing

Integrated Transportation Scenario Planning

Regional land use-transportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues to track the development and expansion of regional scenario planning, using 28 projects completed between 2003 and 2010. These projects demonstrate the continued popularity of scenario planning techniques when used to articulate and evaluate compact alternatives for future growth. The research team used hierarchical multivariate modeling to evaluate 107 scenarios, demonstrating important associations between land use and transportation variables and vehicle travel demand. Coefficients from this analysis suggest that a shift to compact development—increasing average regional density by 50 percent by 2050, emphasizing infill, mixing land uses, and increasing the price of automobile use--could result in 25% fewer VMT compared to amounts projected under trend conditions. The projects also demonstrate important methods for effectively integrating scenario techniques into traditional long-range regional transportation planning processes. These important advances in regional scenario practice are hampered, to some degree, by continued limitations in the ability of travel demand models to evaluate the impacts of land use-based strategies. Another limitation is the failure by project sponsors to incorporate important changes in global economic and environmental conditions, such as climate change and peak oil, both as input variables and as evaluation metrics.

Keith Bartholomew & Reid Ewing with Gail Meakins

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Peer Review Clarifies Lots of Things, Including the Relationship of Sprawl and Air Pollution

Reid Ewing

Wasatch Choices 2040 and the Northwest Quadrant Master Plan: A Cross-Scale Exploration of Regional Strategic Frames

A growing body of urban planning research acknowledges the importance of frames in the evolution of urban ideals. Frames are “mental structures that shape the way we see the world” and as a result, frames can “shape the goals we seek, the plans we make, the way we act, and what counts as good or bad outcome of our actions” (Lakoff, 2004). In urban planning contexts, strategic spatial planning frames help to shape a region’s identity, forge a sense of geographic interdependency, and manage development issues across a hierarchy of geographic scales. The methodological fulcrum of this report lies in the leverage gained by examining how spatial planning frames function across geographic scales. In that light we explore two recent planning efforts – each at a different scale – that illustrate relevant processes and thus offer insight into the significance of frames in regional planning endeavors. In the end, we bring to light novel conclusions, find questions that beg further discussion, and bring into focus the role spatial planning frames play in defining how a metropolitan region works and how it might be more constructively governed.

Grace Bjarnson, Edward Cusick, Holly Hilton and Gail Meakins; Prof. Philip C. Emmi, Instructor

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

A ‘Natural Experiment’—Closing Broadway

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

A Bonanza of Journal Articles

Reid Ewing

Salt Lake City FUTURE

CO2 Reductions Attributable to Smart Growth in California

In 2006, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed Assembly Bill 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act. With the passage of AB 32, California embarked on a precedent-setting journey to create the nation's first comprehensive legal structure for addressing greenhouse gas emissions. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) estimated reductions in CO2 associated with “smart growth” over the period 2010-2020 based in part on the application of methods contained in Growing Cooler. This paper reviews and refines that analysis.

The paper uses sketch planning level methods from Growing Cooler to analyze CO2 reductions in three areas: VMT savings with compact development, residential energy savings with compact building design, and VMT savings with smart transportation policies.California data are used in the analysis.

CARB estimated that smart growth would yield 2.3 million metric tons of savings in CO2.  We have re-estimated the savings from smart growth at 10.6 and 11.7 million metric tons, which is more consistent with the original estimates from the California Climate Action Team.  CARB has indicated its willingness to adjust the estimated savings with smart growth upward in response to the reanalysis in its final Scoping Plan.

Reid Ewing, PH.D.

Arthur C. Nelson, PH.D., FAICP

Philip Emmi, PH.D.

Travel and the Built Environment —A Meta-Analysis

Estimating Commercial Land-Use Conversion: Case Study of Athens-Clarke County, Georgia

Investment in urban areas rise and fall, then rise again as new buildings age, deteriorate, become “ripe” for conversion, and make way for new development usually at a higher intensity. One of the challenges facing planners is predicting when commercial properties may become “ripe” for conversion to other uses. Despite the presence of theory on when properties conceptually ripen for conversion and texts on how to evaluate the financial feasibility of commercial properties under different scenarios the planning literature is generally not helpful. This article presents an approach planners may use to estimate when commercial structures may become ripe for conversion within planning horizons. It uses a case study of Athens-Clarke County, Georgia to illustrate the concept and its application. The article begins with a review of growth trends facing Athens-Clarke County (a consolidated city-county), the analytic approach used to estimate ripeness for conversion of commercial properties along commercial corridors, application of the method to those corridors, and planning implications for the city-county. Lessons can be generalized.

Arthur Nelson

Grace Bjarnson

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Top Academics vs. Top Thinkers

Reid Ewing

Salt Lake City Daytime Population: Should Commuter Support City Services Commuter Tax Option

Providing services for a large daytime population without placing the entire burden on its resident population is a significant challenge facing Salt Lake City today. With a daytime population increase of 72% much of the city’s resources are used to cover the cost of services to non-residents. As Utah’s Capital City, Salt Lake City welcomes all commuters, tourists, students and visitors – however this dilemma poses a serious budget problem, particularly in difficult economic times.

 Salt Lake City is in that 54% of property within the city limits is tax exempt. This includes State and County governments, the University of Utah, and the LDS Church. Combine this with Salt Lake City’s comparatively high property taxes state-wide, and city officials are fairly limited on sources of revenue to fund essential programs.

This paper explores possible commuter taxes that are currently being utilized in municipalities across the nation, and focuses on those options that will not increase resident property taxes. This paper will also discuss the political feasibility of implementing similar taxes in Salt Lake City.

Holly Hilton

Emerging Housing Trends & Challenges

Emerging Housing Trends & Challenges
 Presented to Utah Housing Coalition
 

Arthur C. (Christian “Chris”) Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP
Presidential Professor & Director
Metropolitan Research Center
University of Utah

The New Economy: Preparing Utah for the Future

Presentation at Utah Intergovernmental Roundtable Annual Summit

America @ 1 Billion?

A population of 1 Billion in 2100 for the United States is not unreasonable.  The U.S. adds the  next 100 million faster than any nation except India & Pakistan.  This Presentation focuses on;

1-Trends & Planning Scenarios
2-Where Will the People Live?
3-What Can Planners Do?

Arthur C Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP

America Mega Trends

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP.

Cache Valley Future

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP

Demographic Outlook for Multi-Family Housing

The US will see a shift in demographics between 2005 and 2030 that will be like no other in the nation’s history. These changes will impact housing markets in important ways, especially multi-family housing.  In this article, I will estimate the change in the distribution of households by age, type, and race between 2005 and 2030, and then pose implications for housing demand and policy.

Households are usually a better indicator of housing demand and especially changes in demand than population. In the past, an important driver of housing demand has been shrinking household size. Between 1950 and 2000, average household size fell from 3.38 to 2.59. In 1950, a million people would occupy 296,000 housing units but in 2000 they would occupy 386,000 units – about a third more. This is one reason why many “declining” central cities actually have more occupied housing units today than half a century ago. Household size will continue to fall to about 2.46 persons by 2030. Those million people occupying 386,000 units in 2000 will occupy 406,000 units in 2030.

Even more dramatic changes are in store by 2030, however. For one thing, baby boomers will turn 65 between 2011 and 2029. As they sell off their homes, they will relocate into smaller ones, including multi-family options. There are other demographic trends as well. In addition to more senior households, the number of households without children will dominate household growth. Indeed, single-person households will rival households with children and will be the fastest growing market segment. One reason is that people are living longer, and as baby boomers age they will dominate growth of the single-person segment. Another dramatic change will be in the racial composition of households. Minority household growth will nearly triple that of White (non-Hispanic) households. These changes, combined with others, will have profound effects on America’s future housing markets. Just how profound is open to speculation.

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

What Planners Need to Know About Evaluating LEED

Reid Ewing

Snake River Corridor Mega Trends

Snake River Corridor Mega Trends

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP
Presidential Professor & Director
Metropolitan Research Center
University of Utah

Growth in the Wasatch Range: Are We Doing It Right?

Presentation to Salt Lake City Rotary Club

Arthur C Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP

Reshaping Metro Washington

RESHAPING METRO WASHINGTON
 

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP
Presidential Professor and Director
Metropolitan Research Center
University of Utah
Urban Land Institute
 

Wasatch Regional Council Presentation

Presentation to Wasatch Regional Council

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP
Presidential Professor and Director
Metropolitan Research Center
University of Utah

BUILDING THE NEW DAMASCUS

Arthur C Nelson, Ph.D. FAICP

Envision Utah

Arthur C Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Using Safe Streets as a Research Priority

Reid Ewing

Utah Real Estate Competition 2009 Awards Banquet Details

Arthur C Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP

MEGA TRENDS To Mid-Century

Presentation to the State Flood Plain Managers Association

Arthur C Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP

Northern Rocky Mountain Future

Arthur C Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP

The Best Stimulus for the Money

The tens of billions in federal stimulus funds for transportation, coming to states and regions at a time of substantial budget difficulties, adds urgency to the question “what is the best use of transportation dollars?” Transportation touches all aspects of our communities, but the current economic downturn and the stimulus have placed an extra emphasis on the economic purposes of transportation investments. Two economic goals have been paramount: 1. put as many people to work as quickly as possible, and 2. make the investments that best position the nation for long term prosperity. With respect to the first goal, much has been made of “shovel ready” projects — those projects that can be started immediately. The speed goal of “shovel ready” has been embraced by states and regions across the country. The second goal has occupied a decidedly secondary position. There has been relatively little debate over the location and types of transportation investment that do the most to prepare the country for long-term economic prosperity. Where discussions have occurred they tend to be cursory and anecdotal. Either it has been assumed that all “shovel ready” projects inevitably contribute equally to long term prosperity, or it has been asserted that selecting for the projects that do the most to position the country for long term prosperity will slow the rate at which new money puts people to work. Are all transportation projects of equal value to long-term economic growth? If not, is it possible to select projects with better return and still move money and employ people in the economy quickly? Smart Growth America commissioned the following papers to answer these questions. The findings are encouraging. The research shows there is ample opportunity to pursue long term prosperity through projects that are “shovel ready” — provided we pick the right projects. The research results are doubly encouraging because, though immediate economic needs have taken center stage, transportation’s impact on equity, neighborhoods, energy security, and the environment remains. Real-world results show that transportation projects that help the nation meet these broader challenges are frequently the same projects that deliver the best short-term job production and long-term economic returns.

Arthur C. Nelson, Geoffrey Anderson, Keith Bartholomew, Pamela Perlich, Thomas W. Sanchez, & Reid Ewing

MEGA TRENDS This too shall pass ....

Presentation to the National Ready-Mix Concrete Association

Arthur C Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Meta-Analysis of Plan Quality—More than a Literature Review

Reid Ewing

Feb St. George Mega Trends

St. George Mega Trends
Presented to St. George Chamber of Commerce
Revised February 2, 2009

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP
Presidential Professor &
Director of Metropolitan Research
University of Utah

St. George Mega Trends

St. George Mega Trends
Presented to St. George Chamber of Commerce
 

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP
Presidential Professor &
Director of Metropolitan Research
University of Utah
 

Mountain Megapolitans: Long-term development of the Mountain Megapolitan Areas

Mountain Megapolitans: Long-term development of the Mountain Megapolitan Areas
Presented for New Partners for Smart Growth Conference

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D.,FAICP

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

When Quantitative Research Trumps Qualitative—What Makes Transfer of Development Rights Work?

Reid Ewing

Effects of Environmental Regulatory Systems on Housing Affordability

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

First Look at Climate Action Plans—So Much More to be Done

Reid Ewing

Metropolitan Portland Mega Trends 2005-2040

Presentation to Portland Metro Council

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP
 

New Day Dawning for Apartments

We are at the cusp of perhaps the biggest change in housing market demand seen since the end of World War II. For the half-century since then home-ownership has been championed and home ownership rose to unprecedented levels. Over the next generation, however, the demand for new rental housing – chiefly in the form of apartments – will be on par with demand for new owner housing. This article reviews the current housing situation, projects future demands, and comments on ways in which the National Apartment Association and others may facilitate this sea-change.

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Graduated Density Zoning—The Danger of Generalizing from a Sample of One

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Different Models of Metropolitan Economic Performance

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Land Readjustment—Learning from International Research

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

The Demand for Smart Growth: What Survey Research Tells Us

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

When Qualitative Research Trumps Quantitative—Cultural Economy and Smart Growth

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Security of Public Spaces:  New Measures Are Reliable, But Are They Valid?

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

The Perils of Causal Inference: Bicycling in Davis, California

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Regional Scenario Plans and Meta-Analysis

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine "Research You Can Use"

Finding happiness in public-private partnerships.  The Case for Case Studies.

Reid Ewing

Planning Magazine

This Practitioner Teaches, Too

Reid Ewing