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Working_paper_-_california_growing_cooler_analysis

CO2 Reductions Attributable to Smart Growth in California

Published January 07, 2010

In 2006, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed Assembly Bill 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act. With the passage of AB 32, California embarked on a precedent-setting journey to create the nation's first comprehensive legal structure for addressing greenhouse gas emissions. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) estimated reductions in CO2 associated with “smart growth” over the period 2010-2020 based in part on the application of methods contained in Growing Cooler. This paper reviews and refines that analysis.

The paper uses sketch planning level methods from Growing Cooler to analyze CO2 reductions in three areas: VMT savings with compact development, residential energy savings with compact building design, and VMT savings with smart transportation policies.California data are used in the analysis.

CARB estimated that smart growth would yield 2.3 million metric tons of savings in CO2. We have re-estimated the savings from smart growth at 10.6 and 11.7 million metric tons, which is more consistent with the original estimates from the California Climate Action Team. CARB has indicated its willingness to adjust the estimated savings with smart growth upward in response to the reanalysis in its final Scoping Plan.

Reid Ewing, PH.D.

Arthur C. Nelson, PH.D., FAICP

Philip Emmi, PH.D.

Travel and the Built Environment —A Meta-Analysis

Published January 07, 2010 Localities and states are turning to land planning and urban design for help in reducing automobile use and related social and environmental costs. The effects of these strategies on travel demand has been not been generalized from the multitude of existing studies. Consistent with prior work, we find that among built environmental variables, accessibility to destinations is most strongly associated with vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and walking. Street designs are also linked to VMT. The decision to walk, the results show, is associated with job-housing balance and intersection density. The meta-analysis reveals that proximity to transit is, on average, as strongly related to bus and train use as are built environmental variables. Surprisingly, population density is found to be weakly associated with travel behavior once these other variables are controlled. The elasticities derived in this meta-analysis may be used to post-process outputs of travel or activity models, or be used in sketch planning applications ranging from climate action plans to health impact assessments. However, sample sizes are small, and the number of studies controlling for residential preferences and attitudes is still miniscule. Also, data limitations prevent us from reporting confidence intervals for meta-analysis results. As more built environment-travel studies appear in the planning literature, these meta-analytic results should be updated and refined. Reid Ewing, Robert Cervero

Estimating Commercial Land-Use Conversion: Case Study of Athens-Clarke County, Georgia

Published December 28, 2009

Investment in urban areas rise and fall, then rise again as new buildings age, deteriorate, become “ripe” for conversion, and make way for new development usually at a higher intensity. One of the challenges facing planners is predicting when commercial properties may become “ripe” for conversion to other uses. Despite the presence of theory on when properties conceptually ripen for conversion and texts on how to evaluate the financial feasibility of commercial properties under different scenarios the planning literature is generally not helpful. This article presents an approach planners may use to estimate when commercial structures may become ripe for conversion within planning horizons. It uses a case study of Athens-Clarke County, Georgia to illustrate the concept and its application. The article begins with a review of growth trends facing Athens-Clarke County (a consolidated city-county), the analytic approach used to estimate ripeness for conversion of commercial properties along commercial corridors, application of the method to those corridors, and planning implications for the city-county. Lessons can be generalized.

Arthur Nelson

Grace Bjarnson

Salt Lake City Daytime Population: Should Commuter Support City Services Commuter Tax Option

Published December 01, 2009

Providing services for a large daytime population without placing the entire burden on its resident population is a significant challenge facing Salt Lake City today. With a daytime population increase of 72% much of the city’s resources are used to cover the cost of services to non-residents. As Utah’s Capital City, Salt Lake City welcomes all commuters, tourists, students and visitors – however this dilemma poses a serious budget problem, particularly in difficult economic times.

Salt Lake City is in that 54% of property within the city limits is tax exempt. This includes State and County governments, the University of Utah, and the LDS Church. Combine this with Salt Lake City’s comparatively high property taxes state-wide, and city officials are fairly limited on sources of revenue to fund essential programs.

This paper explores possible commuter taxes that are currently being utilized in municipalities across the nation, and focuses on those options that will not increase resident property taxes. This paper will also discuss the political feasibility of implementing similar taxes in Salt Lake City.

Holly Hilton

Demographic Outlook for Multi-Family Housing

Published September 01, 2009

The US will see a shift in demographics between 2005 and 2030 that will be like no other in the nation’s history. These changes will impact housing markets in important ways, especially multi-family housing. In this article, I will estimate the change in the distribution of households by age, type, and race between 2005 and 2030, and then pose implications for housing demand and policy.

Households are usually a better indicator of housing demand and especially changes in demand than population. In the past, an important driver of housing demand has been shrinking household size. Between 1950 and 2000, average household size fell from 3.38 to 2.59. In 1950, a million people would occupy 296,000 housing units but in 2000 they would occupy 386,000 units – about a third more. This is one reason why many “declining” central cities actually have more occupied housing units today than half a century ago. Household size will continue to fall to about 2.46 persons by 2030. Those million people occupying 386,000 units in 2000 will occupy 406,000 units in 2030.

Even more dramatic changes are in store by 2030, however. For one thing, baby boomers will turn 65 between 2011 and 2029. As they sell off their homes, they will relocate into smaller ones, including multi-family options. There are other demographic trends as well. In addition to more senior households, the number of households without children will dominate household growth. Indeed, single-person households will rival households with children and will be the fastest growing market segment. One reason is that people are living longer, and as baby boomers age they will dominate growth of the single-person segment. Another dramatic change will be in the racial composition of households. Minority household growth will nearly triple that of White (non-Hispanic) households. These changes, combined with others, will have profound effects on America’s future housing markets. Just how profound is open to speculation.

Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP

Working_paper_-_environmental_regulations_housing_costs

Effects of Environmental Regulatory Systems on Housing Affordability

Published December 31, 2008 America will add 100 million people faster than any country on the planet except India. This translates into a net increase of about 40 million homes. This growth will occur largely in areas already challenged by declining supplies of land suitable for efficient development and shifts in demand favoring different – often higher density housing in more mixed-use configurations. The environmental implications of future growth may be significant, and there is a current debate about how to balance meeting housing growth pressures affordably and protecting the environment. Environmental mandates have proliferated and grown more important over the last two decades, but little research has been done to determine what kinds of impacts they have on the provision of affordable housing in communities across the country. Many have argued that environmental regulations have driven up the cost of housing and serve as a critical barrier to affordable housing, but there is little empirical evidence of the impact. Because so little is known definitively, there is a need to identify promising and needed areas of research, conduct the needed research, and pursue corresponding policy implications of the research findings. The purpose of this study is to clarify research issues in the investigation of environmental regulations and review processes as regulatory barriers to housing affordability and to identify areas for further research that address important relevant policy issues. The study focuses on just four U.S. housing markets, only one in detail, and while it provides some of the first empirical data on the costs of assessments, compliance and delays from environmental regulations, the limited geographic scope makes the study preliminary in nature. It is not intended to provide definitive, broad-based, representative findings that can be broadly generalized. The results are suggestive, or heuristic, and are intended to set the stage for more targeted research to be pursued in more detailed studies. Arthur C. Nelson, James M. McElfish, Jr., John Randolph, Joseph M. Schilling, Jonathan Logan

Working_paper_-_new_day_dawning_for_apartment_demand

New Day Dawning for Apartments

Published August 07, 2008

We are at the cusp of perhaps the biggest change in housing market demand seen since the end of World War II. For the half-century since then home-ownership has been championed and home ownership rose to unprecedented levels. Over the next generation, however, the demand for new rental housing – chiefly in the form of apartments – will be on par with demand for new owner housing. This article reviews the current housing situation, projects future demands, and comments on ways in which the National Apartment Association and others may facilitate this sea-change.